Joseph Nye: Franklin Roosevelt y la Segunda Guerra Mundial
En una conferencia grabada originalmente en Carnegie Council 6 de junio de 2013, Joseph Nye, de Harvard, plantea una hipótesis contrafactual sobre la Segunda Guerra Mundial: ¿qué habría pasado si FDR no hubiera sido presidente?
Este fragmento procede de una conferencia de la serie «Asuntos Públicos» titulada «El liderazgo presidencial y la creación de la era estadounidense».
Transcripción
Franklin Roosevelt llega al poder en 1933 sin ningún programa de política exterior. Está centrado, como es debido, en la Depresión. Está pensando en la política interior. Y eso es cierto también en las elecciones de 1936.
Roosevelt cambia de opinión en 1938, tras el Acuerdo de Munich y la Noche de los Cristales en Alemania. Decide que Hitler va a ser una amenaza para Estados Unidos, y que Estados Unidos va a tener que hacer algo contra Hitler, y eso nos va a implicar en Europa. Pero cada vez que intenta persuadir suavemente a la gente de ello, o pronuncia un discurso que lo insinúa, como su famoso Discurso de la Cuarentena sobre la Guerra Civil española, obtiene una intensa reacción del cuerpo político, y siempre retrocede muy rápidamente.
Así que aquí tienes a Roosevelt, que ve un problema pero, como le dijo a uno de sus asesores cercanos: "¿Qué haces si eres un líder en una democracia y miras por encima del hombro y nadie te sigue?".
La respuesta de Roosevelt fue esperar que los acontecimientos educaran al pueblo estadounidense. No recurre a la gran retórica. Recuerden, este es un hombre que dio maravillosas"charlas junto al fuego", muy hábil en esto, relacionadas con la economía doméstica. Pero no funciona cuando lo intenta en política exterior.
So Roosevelt tries to engineer some things which will get the Americans into the war. For example, there is a famous incident in which an American destroyer, the Greer, has an encounter with a German U-boat, and Roosevelt says to the American people something that was a complete lie: "The U-boat attacked the Greer." In fact, we know now that theGreer fired first. But even that's not enough to get the Americans to change their position.
So what Roosevelt does is he makes preparations for the circumstances in which public opinion may change. So we institute a draft, we begin to build defense spending. We have lend-lease to Britain to help Britain stay alive, which Roosevelt justifies, not as a response to Hitler or some grand threat. But he justifies it as if your neighbor's house is on fire and he has to borrow your garden hose, you say, "Sure, borrow the hose and give it back when the fire is out"—which is not a lie, but it certainly is not an accurate description of what he had in mind.
In those circumstances, then Roosevelt, having failed in all his efforts to get us into World War II, is saved by the attack on Pearl Harbor. It's arguable that if Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor, Roosevelt could not have gotten the Americans into World War II in Europe.
Then you could say, "Well, wait a minute. You've just said Roosevelt was important. But here's a man who couldn't accomplish what he set out to do and he basically accomplishes it by accident. Then how do you call him important?"
Let me give you an example with my counterfactual exercise. Imagine that, as Philip Roth speculates in his novel The Plot Against America, in 1940 the Republican Party had nominated Charles Lindbergh instead of Wendell Willkie, an internationalist. Lindbergh was a staunch isolationist and an admirer of Germany. And imagine that you had that type of president, a President Lindbergh, when Japan attacked at Pearl Harbor.
Would it have made a difference? I think probably yes. First of all, you might not have had Pearl Harbor. But if you had Pearl Harbor, you would have seen American policy focused on the Pacific, not on Europe. If that had occurred, the world in 1945 might have been not bipolar, with the United States and Soviet Union as the grand superpower survivors of the war, but with a Europe that was divided between Stalin and Hitler, communist and fascist. With the United States in the Western Hemisphere and Japan, with its greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, we would have seen a multipolar world.
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