Border disputes often lead to war. What would you do if a hostile neighbor seized
your territory?
In Sudan, the South is splitting from the North after decades of conflict and
millions of lives. The split was to be peaceful, following a 2005 peace treaty
and a January 2011 vote by Southern Sudan overwhelmingly in favor of independence.
But as Jeffery Gettleman reported on May 25, "With just seven weeks to go
before independence…Southern Sudan's leaders watched the Northern Sudanese
Army… steamroll into the disputed town of Abyei… and essentially annex
it overnight."
The North claimed provocation, occupying Abyei and its province after Northern
troops were ambushed twice. They also prevented an earlier referendum in Abyei
and refuse to accept new borders recommended by an international commission.
The North's occupation creates a difficult choice for the Southern leaders. The
choice is starker because many have deep personal ties in Abyei.
The South has two options. It can respond militarily, risking a larger war, and
providing an excuse for the North to reject independence.
Or it can ignore a humiliating fait accompli, and move ahead with independence
on July 9, as planned. However, the occupation then becomes a bargaining lever
for the North against unresolved problems like "how to exactly to split the
oil; where to draw the border; (and) how to share Sudan's $38 billion debt,"
notes Gettleman.
So far, Southern leaders have ruled out war. But, renewed war is strategically
tempting, righteously fulfilling, and extremely dangerous. What would you do?
By William
Vocke
For more information see:
Jeffery Gettleman, "Dusty Border Zone a Test of Sudan's Peace," International
Herald Tribune, May 25, 2011, p. 6
Douglas H. Johnson, "Sudan's Peaceful Partition, At Risk," International
Herald Tribune, May 31, 2011, p. 6
Photo Credits in order of Appearance:Yana
AmelinaMandaviJenn
WarrenENOUGH
ProjectENOUGH
ProjectJesse
B. Awalt/ U.S. NavyJenny
RockettUSAID
Africa BureauSteve
EvansUSAID
Africa Bureau Jesse
B. Awalt/ U.S. NavySudan
EnvoyStein
Ove Korneliussen