Two tidal waves are overwhelming Egypt and possibly the Middle East: democracy
and demography. They can converge or conflict, directing the currents may be impossible,
and the outcome is uncertain.
A potent force has helped shape politics since the late 1700s: the idea of
popular sovereignty, the idea that a government's legitimacy rests on the will
of its people.
With this idea, the numbers of democracies, while waxing and waning through
a series of waves, has grown inexorably.
In the nightly news, Egyptians on the street and of all ages eloquently voice
their demand to join this trend.
Second, the Middle East is being engulfed by a tsunami of frustrated young
people between 15 and 35. The young can be especially impatient with the present,
idealistic about the future, and insistent upon rapid change.
The J-curve hypothesis says that revolution is most likely when the gap is
greatest between what people have and their aspirations. Young Egyptians' aspirations
are high, driven by better education and access to global media.
While peaceful evolution from authoritarian rule often leads to democracy,
the results of uprisings are more problematic. For every positive example like
the Philippines, there is an Islamic Revolution in Iran, or historically the
American versus the French revolutions.
What do you think? Can a youthful imperative for rapid change amplify or diminish
the growth of democracy? Can a populist revolution contain the seeds of an authoritarian
regime? Can the two waves be channeled to match aspirations with outcomes?
By William
Vocke
Photos in order of Appearance:
Dan
Dan
Jean
Duplessis-Bertaux
Maureen
Murphy
Takver
Nasser
Nouri
Nasser
Nouri
Dan
Dan
Ahmad
Hammoud
Omar
Robert Hamilton
Joey
de Vera
XcepticZP
John
Trumbull
Dan
Ahmad
Hammoud
